Guar – good rains, decent crop, weak demand, lower prices

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Guar Crop 2023 estimates/guesstimates

It is a bit early to give out the 2023 crop estimates but on the basis of initial info that has been gathered from the market we can give you the following figures:

  • Guar Seed 2023 crop estimate = 7.5 million bags of Guar Seed of 100 kg each = 210,000 MT of Guar Splits
  • Carryover (guesstimate) of Guar Seed and Guar Splits (equivalent quantity of Guar seed bags considered) = 12.5 million bags of Guar Seed of 100 kg each = 350,000 MT of Guar Splits

Indian Southwest Monsoon 2023

The monsoon has been good for the major Guar growing states of Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat (a far third). Please see the map below in which the cumulative rainfall received so far, in the important meteorological sub-divisions for the Guar crop, has been shown:

Source: IMD (click HERE to go to the IMD site)

Guar Gum demand

Guar Gum demand has been weak lately

Guar Splits prices

The combination of good rains, expectation of a decent size crop and weak demand have led to a decline in Guar Splits prices by around 10% over the past 3 weeks and we believe that this is a good opportunity to cover some volume for Q1 2024.

Hope all this info helps you in taking an informed decision about your purchases.

Lastly the picture associated with this post is of dried Guar pods from which the dried and hardened Guar Seeds are obtained for producing Guar Gum!

Oil rigs down, Guar prices down!

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Since our last Guar Market & Indian Southwest Monsoon Update dated 2-May-23, the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) came out with an updated forecast on 26-May-23 wherein it is stated that “Region wise, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over Northwest India”. Northwest includes all the 3 Guar growing states of India – Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat.

To see IMD’s complete report pls visit
https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20230526_pr_2353.pdf

Normally such a forecast would have resulted in an immediate and significant upswing in Guar splits prices. However on this occasion prices did not spike as Guar Gum demand has been quite weak for the last couple of months. Activity in the U.S. oil industry has certainly slowed down as can be made out from the Baker Hughes Rig Count report which came out yesterday and mentions that “U.S. Rig Count is down 15 from last week to 696 with oil rigs down 15 to 555, gas rigs unchanged at 137 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4. U.S. Rig Count is down 31 rigs from last year’s count of 727 with oil rigs down 19, gas rigs down 14 and miscellaneous up 2”.

For your reference given below is our latest Guar Splits Price movement chart.

 

Guar sowing has somewhat begun in the irrigated areas of Haryana, but for the rain fed areas of Rajasthan sowing will only begin sometime in July (provided those areas receive at least a good first bout of rainfall). Apart from the below normal monsoon which might impact the Guar 2023 crop size, the crop size might also be impacted by farmers in certain areas choosing to raise crops, other than Guar, whose prices are more lucrative. But …. still early days to say anything with any level of certainty. So we will keep a close eye on the developments and will keep you posted.

Psyllium Seed – 2021 Crop Report

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Based on information collected in the field, we believe that this year’s Psyllium crop is around 40-50% more than that of last year. However overall Psyllium Seed availability is going to be only around 20-25% more than last year. Please read on further for details.

  • Rajasthan is the leading producer of Psyllium Seed in India and the same is considered to be of very good quality. This year the crop in Rajasthan is expected to be around 40-50% more than that of last year at around 2.17 million bags
  • Madhya Pradesh ranks second in the production of Psyllium seed and the crop from Madhya Pradesh is expected to be 150-170% more than that of last year at around 400,000 bags
  • The state of Gujarat ranks third in the overall production of Psyllium seed in India and the crop from Gujarat this year is expected to be 100% more than last year at around 200,000 bags

The carry-forward stock also plays a very important role in the market. Unfortunately the carry-forward stock this year is expected to be only around 50,000 bags – a 90% decline from last year’s carry-forward stock of 600,000 bags.

Given in the table below is a snapshot of the crop arrivals from the last few years and the estimated arrivals for 2021.

Year2015201620172018201920202021
Rajasthan1,600,0001,200,0001,300,0001,750,0001,500,0001,450,0002,175,000
Madhya Pradesh400,000250,000200,000400,000200,000150,000400,000
Gujarat100,000100,000200,000150,00075,000100,000200,000
Carry-forward100,000350,000100,000300,000500,000600,00050,000
Total2,200,0001,900,0001,800,0002,600,0002,275,0002,300,0002,825,000
*All figures – Psyllium Seed bags – 75kg each

So as can be seen, the overall Psyllium Seed availability is going to be around 20-25% more than last year.

The demand for Psyllium Husk, and allied products, has been increasing over the last few years. Overall demand for Psyllium Husk products for the coming 12 months is expected to be the equivalent of 2,400,000 bags of Psyllium Seed. But as there is now sufficient supply to meet this anticipated demand, Psyllium Seed prices have declined by around 15% from last year’s peak.

At present Psyllium Husk manufacturers and agri-commodity traders are buyers in the market and so we do not expect any further significant decline in Psyllium Seed prices from these present levels.

We are Dun & Bradstreet DUNS Registered

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Premcem Gums is Dun & Bradstreet D-U-N-S Registered.

A successful credit check and subsequent registration is used to establish a worldwide recognised legitimacy, ownership, creditworthiness, overall standing against industry standards and business viability.

More information on D-U-N-S can be found on Dun & Bradstreet India.

India’s first Agri-Commodity Options launched in Guar Seed

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On Sunday 14-Jan-18, the Finance Minister of India launched India’s first agri-commodity options in Guar Seed.

The options have been launched on NCDEX. Please click HERE to read the official circular and the contract specifications. In the coming weeks/months we will let you all know the impact of these options on the Guar market.

Some news links can be found below:

The Economic Times
Jaitley launches India’s first agro options contract in guar seeds, says will benefit farmers

Business Standard
The Union Finance Minister, Shri Arun Jaitley launches the countrys First Agri-commodity Options

The Indian Express
Agriculture top priority for the government: Arun Jaitley

Shale Spending Is Set To Soar

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Oil prices are rising and the worst of the downturn appears to be over. After two years of spending cuts, 2017 could mark the first time in several years that spending levels across the oil and gas industry increase.

North American oil and gas companies could ratchet up spending by as much as 30 percent, according to Raymond James. That will be possible because banks are finally showing signs of loosening credit once again, after two years of slashing lending.

Click here to read the complete OILPRICE.COM article

Swati Vaidya retires after more than 31 years at Premcem!

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Swati Vaidya retires after spending over 31 years at Premcem! The occasion was celebrated with a farewell lunch where everyone spoke about their favourite moments with Swatiben. She has been a very important part of the “Premcem family” and we wish her the very best for the years to come!

IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report released

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its Medium-Term Oil Market Report on 10-Feb-15.

Some highlights:

  • Non-OPEC production more responsive to price swings and sets the stage for a relatively swift recovery
  • US shale industry may be “stronger” in 2020
  • Light Tight Oil (LTO) the new swing producer
  • Global demand to grow slightly faster than supply capacity
  • Saudi Arabian dominance of the OPEC market to decline

To read the Executive Summary of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2015 please click here.

To read Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven’s speech at the launch of Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2015, please click here.

To view the presentation that accompanied Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven’s speech, please click here.

BNK Petroleum gets encouraging test results for its shale gas well in Poland

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BNK Petroleum has got encouraging test results for the Gapowo B-1H shale gas well in Poland and based on those findings the Company believes further wells are warranted.

Click here to download the full news release

Tifac wants guar taken off commodity exchanges to arrest price volatility

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By PTI | 16 Dec, 2014, 08.55PM IST

MUMBAI: A think-tank under the Union Science and Technology Department has called for freeing guar gum from the clutches of speculators and commodity exchanges to bring about price stability.Gaur is currently trading at Rs 8,832 a quintal and the price is expected to remain high on expanding demand from the US shale gas industry and is estimated to shoot up to Rs 11,729 a quintal by 2020, according to the Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council (Tifac).