Psyllium Seed – 2021 Crop Report

Based on information collected in the field, we believe that this year’s Psyllium crop is around 40-50% more than that of last year. However overall Psyllium Seed availability is going to be only around 20-25% more than last year. Please read on further for details.

  • Rajasthan is the leading producer of Psyllium Seed in India and the same is considered to be of very good quality. This year the crop in Rajasthan is expected to be around 40-50% more than that of last year at around 2.17 million bags
  • Madhya Pradesh ranks second in the production of Psyllium seed and the crop from Madhya Pradesh is expected to be 150-170% more than that of last year at around 400,000 bags
  • The state of Gujarat ranks third in the overall production of Psyllium seed in India and the crop from Gujarat this year is expected to be 100% more than last year at around 200,000 bags

The carry-forward stock also plays a very important role in the market. Unfortunately the carry-forward stock this year is expected to be only around 50,000 bags – a 90% decline from last year’s carry-forward stock of 600,000 bags.

Given in the table below is a snapshot of the crop arrivals from the last few years and the estimated arrivals for 2021.

Year2015201620172018201920202021
Rajasthan1,600,0001,200,0001,300,0001,750,0001,500,0001,450,0002,175,000
Madhya Pradesh400,000250,000200,000400,000200,000150,000400,000
Gujarat100,000100,000200,000150,00075,000100,000200,000
Carry-forward100,000350,000100,000300,000500,000600,00050,000
Total2,200,0001,900,0001,800,0002,600,0002,275,0002,300,0002,825,000
*All figures – Psyllium Seed bags – 75kg each

So as can be seen, the overall Psyllium Seed availability is going to be around 20-25% more than last year.

The demand for Psyllium Husk, and allied products, has been increasing over the last few years. Overall demand for Psyllium Husk products for the coming 12 months is expected to be the equivalent of 2,400,000 bags of Psyllium Seed. But as there is now sufficient supply to meet this anticipated demand, Psyllium Seed prices have declined by around 15% from last year’s peak.

At present Psyllium Husk manufacturers and agri-commodity traders are buyers in the market and so we do not expect any further significant decline in Psyllium Seed prices from these present levels.

Indian SW Monsoon rainfall over Guar-growing Northwest India

As a sequel to Skymet’s pan-India forecast released on 3-Apr-19, we give below Skymet’s quantitative distribution of Indian SW Monsoon rainfall over the Guar-growing areas of Northwest India. This region-wise forecast comes with an error margin of +/- 8%.

Although the Southwest Monsoon 2019 is likely to make onset over Kerala on June 4, it seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slow. For Guar-growing Northwest India, the region is expected to record normal rainfall to the tune of 96% of LPA. However the hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, and the Guar-growing states of Rajasthan and Haryana.

Over the last one month, Guar splits prices have remained fairly stable. We believe that prices will continue to remain at current levels unless the Indian Meteorological Department’s second stage Indian SW Monsoon-2019 Forecast, which will be released during the first week of Jun-19, has some negative implications for the Guar-growing areas of India.

 

 

IMD’s 2019 Southwest Monsoon Update & Impact on Guar Market

Yesterday the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first Long Range Forecast of the 2019 Southwest Monsoon. The summary is as under:

a) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal

b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm

c) Weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.

The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored. Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season

IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of Jun-19.

As IMD expects monsoons to be near-normal, Guar Seed/Splits prices have declined today and so it is a good opportunity to cover any Guar Gum requirements that you may have for the next couple of months.

The complete IMD forecast can be found HERE

 

Indian Southwest Monsoon 2019 Update

As is well known, the Indian Southwest Monsoon plays a very important role in the development of the annual Guar crop here in India. It is therefore important to closely monitor the onset and progress of the monsoon and to that end we give below details of the first forecast for the Indian SW Monsoon of 2019.

Skymet, a weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company from the Indian private sector, released yesterday its Monsoon forecast for 2019. It expects the upcoming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September. In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expects that East India along with major portion of Central India is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season. The onset month of June is going to have a very sluggish start and deficit rains are likely to spill into July. Second half of the season would see better rainfall wherein August is expected to be a shade better than September, but both the months would manage to see normal rains.

According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for Jun-Jul-Aug-Sep are:

  • 0% chance of excess rainfall
  • 0% chance of above normal rainfall
  • 30% chance of normal rainfall
  • 55% chance of below normal rainfall
  • 15% chance of drought

Premcem’s inference about the impact on the Guar Crop for 2019:

  • Firstly the geographical areas mentioned above, East India and Central India, where Skymet expects a higher risk of deficient rains, are not Guar growing areas
  • Secondly, although the onset on the monsoon is going to be sluggish and deficient, it is expected that the second half of the season, August and September, would see normal rains. And as Guar is usually planted later in the season, we feel that the adverse conditions in the first half of the season will not have an adverse impact on the Guar crop
  • Lastly, if the onset and progress of the monsoon, in the areas that grow Guar and some other competing crops, is significantly delayed, this might be to Guar’s advantage as it has a short crop cycle and so farmers would prefer to sow Guar as opposed to other crops.

So in a nutshell, there is no cause for major worry and customers can look to cover their requirements for the next couple of months at this stage. The next important forecast to watch out for would be the one from the Indian Meteorological Department.

To download Skyment’s Monsoon 2019 Forecast PPT, click HERE

Guar Crop v/s Demand

As of now the Guar Crop is estimated to be around 7 million bags which translates to 700,000 MT (Metric Tons) of Guar Seed or around 196,000 MT of Guar Splits. If it rains in western Rajasthan (Barmer and Jaisalmer areas) in the next fortnight, the crop figure can easily go up to 8 or 8.5 million bags.

From APEDA the export statistics for Guar Gum + Guar Splits are as under:

Apr17 – Mar18: 366,664 MT
Apr18 – Jun18: 97,411 MT

So it is apparent that if the average monthly export of Guar Gum + Guar Splits continues at the rate of around 30,000 MT/month (based on the above mentioned data), then the upcoming crop is going to fall short of demand. There is definitely a “carryover” from previous years and this will make up say around 50% of the shortfall, but overall it is still looking like a case where demand is definitely going to be more than supply.

Hence it is quite possible that prices may go up significantly from current levels once the peak arrivals of Oct-Nov-Dec are over.

Rajasthan Guar Crop 2018 Update

Given in the table below are the latest Guar sowing figures for Rajasthan – as on 7-Aug-18.

As can be seen, the area covered for Guar is 2806K hectares against a target of 3500K hectares. The overall coverage might increase if the important Guar growing areas of Western Rajasthan receive rains in the next 7 to 10 days.

The Govt. Of India recently announced higher MSP (minimum support price) for a range of crops, including some that compete against Guar). There is no MSP for Guar and as a result Guar has lost out to some other crops this season. And although it is still early to talk about the Guar crop figures for 2018, we believe that the number is likely to be lower than, or at the most similar to, that of last year

India’s first Agri-Commodity Options launched in Guar Seed

On Sunday 14-Jan-18, the Finance Minister of India launched India’s first agri-commodity options in Guar Seed.

The options have been launched on NCDEX. Please click HERE to read the official circular and the contract specifications. In the coming weeks/months we will let you all know the impact of these options on the Guar market.

Some news links can be found below:

The Economic Times
Jaitley launches India’s first agro options contract in guar seeds, says will benefit farmers

Business Standard
The Union Finance Minister, Shri Arun Jaitley launches the countrys First Agri-commodity Options

The Indian Express
Agriculture top priority for the government: Arun Jaitley

SHEFEXIL’s Final Report on the Guar Crop for 2016-17

SHEFEXIL, the nodal Indian Government Agency for Guar Gum export, has come out with the Final Round Report for the Guar Crop for the 2016-17 season. The crop survey was undertaken by the Nielsen Company, Mumbai, at the behest of SHEFEXIL, Kolkata. The estimated Guar Seed crop for the 2016-17 is 17.5 million bags of Guar Seed – approximately 36% lower than previous years.

To view the complete report please click HERE

SHEFEXIL’s 3rd Round Report on Guar Seeds Production for 2016-17

SHEFEXIL, the the nodal Indian Government Agency for Guar Gum export, has come out with the 3rd Round Report for the Guar Seed crop for the 2016-17 season. The crop survey was undertaken by the Nielsen Company, Mumbai, at the behest of SHEFEXIL, Kolkata.

To view the complete report please click HERE

Shale Spending Is Set To Soar

Oil prices are rising and the worst of the downturn appears to be over. After two years of spending cuts, 2017 could mark the first time in several years that spending levels across the oil and gas industry increase.

North American oil and gas companies could ratchet up spending by as much as 30 percent, according to Raymond James. That will be possible because banks are finally showing signs of loosening credit once again, after two years of slashing lending.

Click here to read the complete OILPRICE.COM article