Indian SW Monsoon rainfall over Guar-growing Northwest India

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As a sequel to Skymet’s pan-India forecast released on 3-Apr-19, we give below Skymet’s quantitative distribution of Indian SW Monsoon rainfall over the Guar-growing areas of Northwest India. This region-wise forecast comes with an error margin of +/- 8%.

Although the Southwest Monsoon 2019 is likely to make onset over Kerala on June 4, it seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slow. For Guar-growing Northwest India, the region is expected to record normal rainfall to the tune of 96% of LPA. However the hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, and the Guar-growing states of Rajasthan and Haryana.

Over the last one month, Guar splits prices have remained fairly stable. We believe that prices will continue to remain at current levels unless the Indian Meteorological Department’s second stage Indian SW Monsoon-2019 Forecast, which will be released during the first week of Jun-19, has some negative implications for the Guar-growing areas of India.

 

 

IMD’s 2019 Southwest Monsoon Update & Impact on Guar Market

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Yesterday the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first Long Range Forecast of the 2019 Southwest Monsoon. The summary is as under:

a) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal

b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm

c) Weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.

The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored. Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season

IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of Jun-19.

As IMD expects monsoons to be near-normal, Guar Seed/Splits prices have declined today and so it is a good opportunity to cover any Guar Gum requirements that you may have for the next couple of months.

The complete IMD forecast can be found HERE

 

Indian Southwest Monsoon 2019 Update

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As is well known, the Indian Southwest Monsoon plays a very important role in the development of the annual Guar crop here in India. It is therefore important to closely monitor the onset and progress of the monsoon and to that end we give below details of the first forecast for the Indian SW Monsoon of 2019.

Skymet, a weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company from the Indian private sector, released yesterday its Monsoon forecast for 2019. It expects the upcoming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September. In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expects that East India along with major portion of Central India is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season. The onset month of June is going to have a very sluggish start and deficit rains are likely to spill into July. Second half of the season would see better rainfall wherein August is expected to be a shade better than September, but both the months would manage to see normal rains.

According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for Jun-Jul-Aug-Sep are:

  • 0% chance of excess rainfall
  • 0% chance of above normal rainfall
  • 30% chance of normal rainfall
  • 55% chance of below normal rainfall
  • 15% chance of drought

Premcem’s inference about the impact on the Guar Crop for 2019:

  • Firstly the geographical areas mentioned above, East India and Central India, where Skymet expects a higher risk of deficient rains, are not Guar growing areas
  • Secondly, although the onset on the monsoon is going to be sluggish and deficient, it is expected that the second half of the season, August and September, would see normal rains. And as Guar is usually planted later in the season, we feel that the adverse conditions in the first half of the season will not have an adverse impact on the Guar crop
  • Lastly, if the onset and progress of the monsoon, in the areas that grow Guar and some other competing crops, is significantly delayed, this might be to Guar’s advantage as it has a short crop cycle and so farmers would prefer to sow Guar as opposed to other crops.

So in a nutshell, there is no cause for major worry and customers can look to cover their requirements for the next couple of months at this stage. The next important forecast to watch out for would be the one from the Indian Meteorological Department.

To download Skyment’s Monsoon 2019 Forecast PPT, click HERE

Guar Crop v/s Demand

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As of now the Guar Crop is estimated to be around 7 million bags which translates to 700,000 MT (Metric Tons) of Guar Seed or around 196,000 MT of Guar Splits. If it rains in western Rajasthan (Barmer and Jaisalmer areas) in the next fortnight, the crop figure can easily go up to 8 or 8.5 million bags.

From APEDA the export statistics for Guar Gum + Guar Splits are as under:

Apr17 – Mar18: 366,664 MT
Apr18 – Jun18: 97,411 MT

So it is apparent that if the average monthly export of Guar Gum + Guar Splits continues at the rate of around 30,000 MT/month (based on the above mentioned data), then the upcoming crop is going to fall short of demand. There is definitely a “carryover” from previous years and this will make up say around 50% of the shortfall, but overall it is still looking like a case where demand is definitely going to be more than supply.

Hence it is quite possible that prices may go up significantly from current levels once the peak arrivals of Oct-Nov-Dec are over.

Rajasthan Guar Crop 2018 Update

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Given in the table below are the latest Guar sowing figures for Rajasthan – as on 7-Aug-18.

As can be seen, the area covered for Guar is 2806K hectares against a target of 3500K hectares. The overall coverage might increase if the important Guar growing areas of Western Rajasthan receive rains in the next 7 to 10 days.

The Govt. Of India recently announced higher MSP (minimum support price) for a range of crops, including some that compete against Guar). There is no MSP for Guar and as a result Guar has lost out to some other crops this season. And although it is still early to talk about the Guar crop figures for 2018, we believe that the number is likely to be lower than, or at the most similar to, that of last year

India’s first Agri-Commodity Options launched in Guar Seed

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On Sunday 14-Jan-18, the Finance Minister of India launched India’s first agri-commodity options in Guar Seed.

The options have been launched on NCDEX. Please click HERE to read the official circular and the contract specifications. In the coming weeks/months we will let you all know the impact of these options on the Guar market.

Some news links can be found below:

The Economic Times
Jaitley launches India’s first agro options contract in guar seeds, says will benefit farmers

Business Standard
The Union Finance Minister, Shri Arun Jaitley launches the countrys First Agri-commodity Options

The Indian Express
Agriculture top priority for the government: Arun Jaitley

SHEFEXIL’s Final Report on the Guar Crop for 2016-17

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SHEFEXIL, the nodal Indian Government Agency for Guar Gum export, has come out with the Final Round Report for the Guar Crop for the 2016-17 season. The crop survey was undertaken by the Nielsen Company, Mumbai, at the behest of SHEFEXIL, Kolkata. The estimated Guar Seed crop for the 2016-17 is 17.5 million bags of Guar Seed – approximately 36% lower than previous years.

To view the complete report please click HERE

SHEFEXIL’s 3rd Round Report on Guar Seeds Production for 2016-17

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SHEFEXIL, the the nodal Indian Government Agency for Guar Gum export, has come out with the 3rd Round Report for the Guar Seed crop for the 2016-17 season. The crop survey was undertaken by the Nielsen Company, Mumbai, at the behest of SHEFEXIL, Kolkata.

To view the complete report please click HERE

Monsoon progressing well, Guar prices stable for now

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The Indian Southwest Monsoon has been progressing well this year.

Due to the significant decline in prices for Guar seeds/splits, and also due to the significant decline in Guar Gum export from India, the total area that has been brought under Guar cultivation this year has also declined significantly and which be seen below:

Rajasthan  – Area covered in Hectares (as on 18-Aug-16)
5 year avg. area for year ending 2014 Area sown by 20-Aug-15 Area sown till date % as compared to same period of 2015 % as compared to the 5 year avg. area
4,060,000 3,918,100 2,838,500 72.45% 69.91%
Gujarat – Area covered in Hectares (as on 22-Aug-16)
3 year avg. area Area sown by 20-Aug-15 Area sown till date % as compared to 2015 % as compared to the 3 year avg. area
378,800 263,800 119,500 45.30% 31.55%

Haryana is also an important state for Guar cultivation but the latest figures are not available from the state government. However based on market sources, the area brought under Guar cultivation in Haryana this year is 50% as that compared to last year.

However even after this significant decline in Guar cultivation, the total Guar seed output expected this year, plus the carry-over from the 2015 crop, should be more than sufficient to meet demand. All this info is already known to all the market players and we believe the same has already been factored into the current prices.

Moving forward, unless there is a sharp drop in crude oil price and/or a sharp drop in Guar Gum exports, we do not expect Guar prices to decline significantly in the near term.

However:

  • If the crude oil price increases significantly from the current levels or
  • If Rajasthan, which is by far the most important Guar growing state, does not get a second round of rains in about 3 weeks

then it is likely that Guar prices will also start moving upwards

Good monsoon forecast should keep Guar prices stable

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In our last Guar Market Update on 18-Feb-16 (as given in the blog entry below) we had made a point that all the bad news seems to be priced in and that Guar splits prices should remain confined in a narrow band between $800/MT to $950/MT. In fact Guar prices remained even more stable and were confined to a tight band between $800/MT to $850/MT.

See chart below for more details

In the last few days, Guar splits had started inching upwards in sync with the rise in crude oil prices.

However the first initial forecast for the Indian Southwest Monsoon 2016 from Skymet Weather (a private organisation), which came out yesterday, and which stated that “Monsoon 2016 is likely to remain above than the normal at 105% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September”, has resulted in Guar splits prices giving up its gains from the last couple of days. To view the complete Skymet Weather’s Monsoon Foreshadow report please click here.

Additionally the 1st Stage LRF (long range forecast) of the Indian Southwest Monsoon, from the Indian Meteorological Department, has also just been released in the last half an hour and it states “Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm”. To view the complete forecast please click here.

Both these positive forecasts should ensure that Guar splits prices remain stable over the near term. However it will be very important to keep a close watch on the onset and progress of the monsoon over the next 2 to 3 months …. we will keep you posted!