In our Psyllium Seed – 2016 Crop Report which was published on 12-Apr-16, we had estimated that the crop this year would be about 25% – 30% less as compared to last year. Based on the arrivals in the last 3.5 months, the above figures seem fairly accurate. Up until now, a total of 1.25 million bags of Psyllium Seed have arrived into the market and we expect another 350,000 – 400,000 bags to arrive in the near future.
Overall demand for 12 months starting from Apr-16 is still estimated to be the equivalent of 1.9 – 2.0 million bags of Psyllium Seed and this is going to be significantly greater than upcoming supply.
The current prices for various grades of Psyllium Husk are at an all-time high. Procter & Gamble, the single largest buyer of the product, is procuring material at regular intervals and this is providing very good support to the current prices.
Unless there is a significant decline in demand for Psyllium Husk this year, it is likely that we might have a shortage by the end of this year and/or beginning of 2017. And as long as there is ongoing regular demand for Psyllium Husk over the next few months, it is unlikely that there will be substantial drop in prices.