Guar splits prices at 2 year lows, good monsoon, 50% tariff for exports to USA?!

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Greetings from Mumbai! We are pleased to present you with our latest Guar Market Update.

Guar Splits Price Trend

Please see the chart below for Guar Splits Prices (INR/kg) for the last 3 years.

  • Prices peaked at around INR 140/kg in early 2023
  • Now stabilizing at around  INR 100/kg – a 2 year low!

Progress of the 2025 Indian Southwest Monsoon and impact on the Guar crop

Please see the image below sourced from the India Meteorological Department’s website (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/)

  • Some guar regions of Rajasthan have received excess to large excess rainfall
  • While this has created excellent soil moisture for sowing and early growth, some localized crop damage is possible to the standing crop due to waterlogging in certain Guar growing areas of Rajasthan and Haryana
  • As of now, a good crop is still expected overall

Guar Gum + Guar Splits: Export Trend (2023–2025)

As can be seen from the table below, if the trend for the first six months of 2025 continues, 2025 exports might reach a new record high. However, this must now be viewed cautiously in light of President Trump’s newly announced 50% tariff on Indian exports to U.S.A.

Year Guar Gum (MT) Guar Splits (MT) Total Exports (MT)
2023 194,043 53,329 247,372
2024 247,315 80,299 327,614
2025 (H1) 142,248 34,241 353,000 (projected)

New Risk Factor – Tariff on Indian Exports

  • President Trump, yesterday, imposed tariffs totalling 50% on Indian goods imported into U.S.A
  • It is currently unclear whether this will be permanent, temporary, or negotiated lower
  • If it remains at elevated levels, it could negatively impact Guar Gum exports to U.S.A. (the biggest market for Indian Guar Gum)
  • Too early to quantify impact — but this adds a significant new uncertainty to the market outlook

Market Outlook Summary

Factor Current Status Impact on Prices
Price Trend Stable near 2-year low Neutral
Monsoon Good, with some damage risk Maybe bearish
Export Demand Consistent and as much as last year Supportive
Inventory Levels Likely good but lower carry over from previous years Neutral
Tariff Risk New & unclear Potentially Bearish

Recommendation

  • Short-term buyers: Lock in current low prices
  • Medium-term to long-term buyers: Begin phased procurement
  • Tariff risk: Watch closely – if the tariff stays high, export demand (especially from the U.S. hydraulic fracturing industry) may drop, softening prices further
  • Avoid over-contracting until tariff situation is clearer

Key Watchpoints

• Crop progress (Aug – Oct 2025)
• Export momentum (Q3 – Q4 2025)
• Evolution of tariff negotiations
• Global demand factors (especially from the U.S. hydraulic fracturing industry)

We trust you will find this report useful. Please let us know if you need any further information and/or clarifications

Guar – good rains, decent crop, weak demand, lower prices

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Guar Crop 2023 estimates/guesstimates

It is a bit early to give out the 2023 crop estimates but on the basis of initial info that has been gathered from the market we can give you the following figures:

  • Guar Seed 2023 crop estimate = 7.5 million bags of Guar Seed of 100 kg each = 210,000 MT of Guar Splits
  • Carryover (guesstimate) of Guar Seed and Guar Splits (equivalent quantity of Guar seed bags considered) = 12.5 million bags of Guar Seed of 100 kg each = 350,000 MT of Guar Splits

Indian Southwest Monsoon 2023

The monsoon has been good for the major Guar growing states of Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat (a far third). Please see the map below in which the cumulative rainfall received so far, in the important meteorological sub-divisions for the Guar crop, has been shown:

Source: IMD (click HERE to go to the IMD site)

Guar Gum demand

Guar Gum demand has been weak lately

Guar Splits prices

The combination of good rains, expectation of a decent size crop and weak demand have led to a decline in Guar Splits prices by around 10% over the past 3 weeks and we believe that this is a good opportunity to cover some volume for Q1 2024.

Hope all this info helps you in taking an informed decision about your purchases.

Lastly the picture associated with this post is of dried Guar pods from which the dried and hardened Guar Seeds are obtained for producing Guar Gum!

Guar Seed Visuals from the 2023 Crop

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Guar Seed Visuals from the 2023 Crop
Guar seed arrivals from the 2023 crop have begun. The numbers are very small as yet – around 2500 bags (100 kg each) from the areas of Sri Ganganagar, Hanumangarh and Churu.

For many of you who are buying Guar Gum powder but have never seen the Guar seed from which it is made, here is a short video clip from yesterday’s arrivals of Guar seeds at an agri-market yard.

https://youtube.com/shorts/upbp_9Y4crQ?feature=share

Please do let us know if we can service any of your Guar Gum requirements at present.

Oil rigs down, Guar prices down!

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Since our last Guar Market & Indian Southwest Monsoon Update dated 2-May-23, the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) came out with an updated forecast on 26-May-23 wherein it is stated that “Region wise, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over Northwest India”. Northwest includes all the 3 Guar growing states of India – Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat.

To see IMD’s complete report pls visit
https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20230526_pr_2353.pdf

Normally such a forecast would have resulted in an immediate and significant upswing in Guar splits prices. However on this occasion prices did not spike as Guar Gum demand has been quite weak for the last couple of months. Activity in the U.S. oil industry has certainly slowed down as can be made out from the Baker Hughes Rig Count report which came out yesterday and mentions that “U.S. Rig Count is down 15 from last week to 696 with oil rigs down 15 to 555, gas rigs unchanged at 137 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4. U.S. Rig Count is down 31 rigs from last year’s count of 727 with oil rigs down 19, gas rigs down 14 and miscellaneous up 2”.

For your reference given below is our latest Guar Splits Price movement chart.

 

Guar sowing has somewhat begun in the irrigated areas of Haryana, but for the rain fed areas of Rajasthan sowing will only begin sometime in July (provided those areas receive at least a good first bout of rainfall). Apart from the below normal monsoon which might impact the Guar 2023 crop size, the crop size might also be impacted by farmers in certain areas choosing to raise crops, other than Guar, whose prices are more lucrative. But …. still early days to say anything with any level of certainty. So we will keep a close eye on the developments and will keep you posted.