As is well known, the Indian Southwest Monsoon plays a very important role in the development of the annual Guar crop here in India. It is therefore important to closely monitor the onset and progress of the monsoon and to that end we give below details of the first forecast for the Indian SW Monsoon of 2019.
Skymet, a weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company from the Indian private sector, released yesterday its Monsoon forecast for 2019. It expects the upcoming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September. In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expects that East India along with major portion of Central India is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season. The onset month of June is going to have a very sluggish start and deficit rains are likely to spill into July. Second half of the season would see better rainfall wherein August is expected to be a shade better than September, but both the months would manage to see normal rains.
According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for Jun-Jul-Aug-Sep are:
- 0% chance of excess rainfall
- 0% chance of above normal rainfall
- 30% chance of normal rainfall
- 55% chance of below normal rainfall
- 15% chance of drought
Premcem’s inference about the impact on the Guar Crop for 2019:
- Firstly the geographical areas mentioned above, East India and Central India, where Skymet expects a higher risk of deficient rains, are not Guar growing areas
- Secondly, although the onset on the monsoon is going to be sluggish and deficient, it is expected that the second half of the season, August and September, would see normal rains. And as Guar is usually planted later in the season, we feel that the adverse conditions in the first half of the season will not have an adverse impact on the Guar crop
- Lastly, if the onset and progress of the monsoon, in the areas that grow Guar and some other competing crops, is significantly delayed, this might be to Guar’s advantage as it has a short crop cycle and so farmers would prefer to sow Guar as opposed to other crops.
So in a nutshell, there is no cause for major worry and customers can look to cover their requirements for the next couple of months at this stage. The next important forecast to watch out for would be the one from the Indian Meteorological Department.
To download Skyment’s Monsoon 2019 Forecast PPT, click HERE