Yesterday the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first Long Range Forecast of the 2019 Southwest Monsoon. The summary is as under:
a) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal
b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm
c) Weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.
The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored. Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season
IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of Jun-19.
As IMD expects monsoons to be near-normal, Guar Seed/Splits prices have declined today and so it is a good opportunity to cover any Guar Gum requirements that you may have for the next couple of months.
The complete IMD forecast can be found HERE