Guar splits prices at 2 year lows, good monsoon, 50% tariff for exports to USA?!

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Greetings from Mumbai! We are pleased to present you with our latest Guar Market Update.

Guar Splits Price Trend

Please see the chart below for Guar Splits Prices (INR/kg) for the last 3 years.

  • Prices peaked at around INR 140/kg in early 2023
  • Now stabilizing at around  INR 100/kg – a 2 year low!

Progress of the 2025 Indian Southwest Monsoon and impact on the Guar crop

Please see the image below sourced from the India Meteorological Department’s website (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/)

  • Some guar regions of Rajasthan have received excess to large excess rainfall
  • While this has created excellent soil moisture for sowing and early growth, some localized crop damage is possible to the standing crop due to waterlogging in certain Guar growing areas of Rajasthan and Haryana
  • As of now, a good crop is still expected overall

Guar Gum + Guar Splits: Export Trend (2023–2025)

As can be seen from the table below, if the trend for the first six months of 2025 continues, 2025 exports might reach a new record high. However, this must now be viewed cautiously in light of President Trump’s newly announced 50% tariff on Indian exports to U.S.A.

Year Guar Gum (MT) Guar Splits (MT) Total Exports (MT)
2023 194,043 53,329 247,372
2024 247,315 80,299 327,614
2025 (H1) 142,248 34,241 353,000 (projected)

New Risk Factor – Tariff on Indian Exports

  • President Trump, yesterday, imposed tariffs totalling 50% on Indian goods imported into U.S.A
  • It is currently unclear whether this will be permanent, temporary, or negotiated lower
  • If it remains at elevated levels, it could negatively impact Guar Gum exports to U.S.A. (the biggest market for Indian Guar Gum)
  • Too early to quantify impact — but this adds a significant new uncertainty to the market outlook

Market Outlook Summary

Factor Current Status Impact on Prices
Price Trend Stable near 2-year low Neutral
Monsoon Good, with some damage risk Maybe bearish
Export Demand Consistent and as much as last year Supportive
Inventory Levels Likely good but lower carry over from previous years Neutral
Tariff Risk New & unclear Potentially Bearish

Recommendation

  • Short-term buyers: Lock in current low prices
  • Medium-term to long-term buyers: Begin phased procurement
  • Tariff risk: Watch closely – if the tariff stays high, export demand (especially from the U.S. hydraulic fracturing industry) may drop, softening prices further
  • Avoid over-contracting until tariff situation is clearer

Key Watchpoints

• Crop progress (Aug – Oct 2025)
• Export momentum (Q3 – Q4 2025)
• Evolution of tariff negotiations
• Global demand factors (especially from the U.S. hydraulic fracturing industry)

We trust you will find this report useful. Please let us know if you need any further information and/or clarifications

Guar – good rains, decent crop, weak demand, lower prices

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Guar Crop 2023 estimates/guesstimates

It is a bit early to give out the 2023 crop estimates but on the basis of initial info that has been gathered from the market we can give you the following figures:

  • Guar Seed 2023 crop estimate = 7.5 million bags of Guar Seed of 100 kg each = 210,000 MT of Guar Splits
  • Carryover (guesstimate) of Guar Seed and Guar Splits (equivalent quantity of Guar seed bags considered) = 12.5 million bags of Guar Seed of 100 kg each = 350,000 MT of Guar Splits

Indian Southwest Monsoon 2023

The monsoon has been good for the major Guar growing states of Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat (a far third). Please see the map below in which the cumulative rainfall received so far, in the important meteorological sub-divisions for the Guar crop, has been shown:

Source: IMD (click HERE to go to the IMD site)

Guar Gum demand

Guar Gum demand has been weak lately

Guar Splits prices

The combination of good rains, expectation of a decent size crop and weak demand have led to a decline in Guar Splits prices by around 10% over the past 3 weeks and we believe that this is a good opportunity to cover some volume for Q1 2024.

Hope all this info helps you in taking an informed decision about your purchases.

Lastly the picture associated with this post is of dried Guar pods from which the dried and hardened Guar Seeds are obtained for producing Guar Gum!

Guar Seed Visuals from the 2023 Crop

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Guar Seed Visuals from the 2023 Crop
Guar seed arrivals from the 2023 crop have begun. The numbers are very small as yet – around 2500 bags (100 kg each) from the areas of Sri Ganganagar, Hanumangarh and Churu.

For many of you who are buying Guar Gum powder but have never seen the Guar seed from which it is made, here is a short video clip from yesterday’s arrivals of Guar seeds at an agri-market yard.

https://youtube.com/shorts/upbp_9Y4crQ?feature=share

Please do let us know if we can service any of your Guar Gum requirements at present.

Oil rigs down, Guar prices down!

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Since our last Guar Market & Indian Southwest Monsoon Update dated 2-May-23, the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) came out with an updated forecast on 26-May-23 wherein it is stated that “Region wise, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over Northwest India”. Northwest includes all the 3 Guar growing states of India – Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat.

To see IMD’s complete report pls visit
https://internal.imd.gov.in/press_release/20230526_pr_2353.pdf

Normally such a forecast would have resulted in an immediate and significant upswing in Guar splits prices. However on this occasion prices did not spike as Guar Gum demand has been quite weak for the last couple of months. Activity in the U.S. oil industry has certainly slowed down as can be made out from the Baker Hughes Rig Count report which came out yesterday and mentions that “U.S. Rig Count is down 15 from last week to 696 with oil rigs down 15 to 555, gas rigs unchanged at 137 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4. U.S. Rig Count is down 31 rigs from last year’s count of 727 with oil rigs down 19, gas rigs down 14 and miscellaneous up 2”.

For your reference given below is our latest Guar Splits Price movement chart.

 

Guar sowing has somewhat begun in the irrigated areas of Haryana, but for the rain fed areas of Rajasthan sowing will only begin sometime in July (provided those areas receive at least a good first bout of rainfall). Apart from the below normal monsoon which might impact the Guar 2023 crop size, the crop size might also be impacted by farmers in certain areas choosing to raise crops, other than Guar, whose prices are more lucrative. But …. still early days to say anything with any level of certainty. So we will keep a close eye on the developments and will keep you posted.

Psyllium Seed – 2021 Crop Report

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Based on information collected in the field, we believe that this year’s Psyllium crop is around 40-50% more than that of last year. However overall Psyllium Seed availability is going to be only around 20-25% more than last year. Please read on further for details.

  • Rajasthan is the leading producer of Psyllium Seed in India and the same is considered to be of very good quality. This year the crop in Rajasthan is expected to be around 40-50% more than that of last year at around 2.17 million bags
  • Madhya Pradesh ranks second in the production of Psyllium seed and the crop from Madhya Pradesh is expected to be 150-170% more than that of last year at around 400,000 bags
  • The state of Gujarat ranks third in the overall production of Psyllium seed in India and the crop from Gujarat this year is expected to be 100% more than last year at around 200,000 bags

The carry-forward stock also plays a very important role in the market. Unfortunately the carry-forward stock this year is expected to be only around 50,000 bags – a 90% decline from last year’s carry-forward stock of 600,000 bags.

Given in the table below is a snapshot of the crop arrivals from the last few years and the estimated arrivals for 2021.

Year2015201620172018201920202021
Rajasthan1,600,0001,200,0001,300,0001,750,0001,500,0001,450,0002,175,000
Madhya Pradesh400,000250,000200,000400,000200,000150,000400,000
Gujarat100,000100,000200,000150,00075,000100,000200,000
Carry-forward100,000350,000100,000300,000500,000600,00050,000
Total2,200,0001,900,0001,800,0002,600,0002,275,0002,300,0002,825,000
*All figures – Psyllium Seed bags – 75kg each

So as can be seen, the overall Psyllium Seed availability is going to be around 20-25% more than last year.

The demand for Psyllium Husk, and allied products, has been increasing over the last few years. Overall demand for Psyllium Husk products for the coming 12 months is expected to be the equivalent of 2,400,000 bags of Psyllium Seed. But as there is now sufficient supply to meet this anticipated demand, Psyllium Seed prices have declined by around 15% from last year’s peak.

At present Psyllium Husk manufacturers and agri-commodity traders are buyers in the market and so we do not expect any further significant decline in Psyllium Seed prices from these present levels.

We are Dun & Bradstreet DUNS Registered

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Premcem Gums is Dun & Bradstreet D-U-N-S Registered.

A successful credit check and subsequent registration is used to establish a worldwide recognised legitimacy, ownership, creditworthiness, overall standing against industry standards and business viability.

More information on D-U-N-S can be found on Dun & Bradstreet India.

Indian SW Monsoon rainfall over Guar-growing Northwest India

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As a sequel to Skymet’s pan-India forecast released on 3-Apr-19, we give below Skymet’s quantitative distribution of Indian SW Monsoon rainfall over the Guar-growing areas of Northwest India. This region-wise forecast comes with an error margin of +/- 8%.

Although the Southwest Monsoon 2019 is likely to make onset over Kerala on June 4, it seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slow. For Guar-growing Northwest India, the region is expected to record normal rainfall to the tune of 96% of LPA. However the hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, and the Guar-growing states of Rajasthan and Haryana.

Over the last one month, Guar splits prices have remained fairly stable. We believe that prices will continue to remain at current levels unless the Indian Meteorological Department’s second stage Indian SW Monsoon-2019 Forecast, which will be released during the first week of Jun-19, has some negative implications for the Guar-growing areas of India.

 

 

IMD’s 2019 Southwest Monsoon Update & Impact on Guar Market

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Yesterday the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first Long Range Forecast of the 2019 Southwest Monsoon. The summary is as under:

a) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal

b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm

c) Weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.

The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored. Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season

IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of Jun-19.

As IMD expects monsoons to be near-normal, Guar Seed/Splits prices have declined today and so it is a good opportunity to cover any Guar Gum requirements that you may have for the next couple of months.

The complete IMD forecast can be found HERE

 

Indian Southwest Monsoon 2019 Update

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As is well known, the Indian Southwest Monsoon plays a very important role in the development of the annual Guar crop here in India. It is therefore important to closely monitor the onset and progress of the monsoon and to that end we give below details of the first forecast for the Indian SW Monsoon of 2019.

Skymet, a weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company from the Indian private sector, released yesterday its Monsoon forecast for 2019. It expects the upcoming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September. In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expects that East India along with major portion of Central India is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season. The onset month of June is going to have a very sluggish start and deficit rains are likely to spill into July. Second half of the season would see better rainfall wherein August is expected to be a shade better than September, but both the months would manage to see normal rains.

According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for Jun-Jul-Aug-Sep are:

  • 0% chance of excess rainfall
  • 0% chance of above normal rainfall
  • 30% chance of normal rainfall
  • 55% chance of below normal rainfall
  • 15% chance of drought

Premcem’s inference about the impact on the Guar Crop for 2019:

  • Firstly the geographical areas mentioned above, East India and Central India, where Skymet expects a higher risk of deficient rains, are not Guar growing areas
  • Secondly, although the onset on the monsoon is going to be sluggish and deficient, it is expected that the second half of the season, August and September, would see normal rains. And as Guar is usually planted later in the season, we feel that the adverse conditions in the first half of the season will not have an adverse impact on the Guar crop
  • Lastly, if the onset and progress of the monsoon, in the areas that grow Guar and some other competing crops, is significantly delayed, this might be to Guar’s advantage as it has a short crop cycle and so farmers would prefer to sow Guar as opposed to other crops.

So in a nutshell, there is no cause for major worry and customers can look to cover their requirements for the next couple of months at this stage. The next important forecast to watch out for would be the one from the Indian Meteorological Department.

To download Skyment’s Monsoon 2019 Forecast PPT, click HERE

Guar Crop v/s Demand

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As of now the Guar Crop is estimated to be around 7 million bags which translates to 700,000 MT (Metric Tons) of Guar Seed or around 196,000 MT of Guar Splits. If it rains in western Rajasthan (Barmer and Jaisalmer areas) in the next fortnight, the crop figure can easily go up to 8 or 8.5 million bags.

From APEDA the export statistics for Guar Gum + Guar Splits are as under:

Apr17 – Mar18: 366,664 MT
Apr18 – Jun18: 97,411 MT

So it is apparent that if the average monthly export of Guar Gum + Guar Splits continues at the rate of around 30,000 MT/month (based on the above mentioned data), then the upcoming crop is going to fall short of demand. There is definitely a “carryover” from previous years and this will make up say around 50% of the shortfall, but overall it is still looking like a case where demand is definitely going to be more than supply.

Hence it is quite possible that prices may go up significantly from current levels once the peak arrivals of Oct-Nov-Dec are over.